Futures · Explore

Scenario library scan

Starts from the scenario sets that already exist for this sector, rather than inventing three worlds from a blank sheet in a two-hour workshop.

Stage

02 Explore

Works at

Corporate, Business

Maturity

Scaling → Large organisation

Time

One week, mostly the researcher's time, then a session to tailor

What it is

Inverts the usual scenario exercise. Rather than building three worlds from critical uncertainties in a workshop, a researcher is dispatched first to find the scenario sets that credible external bodies have already published for this sector — energy and climate trajectories, a central bank's or regulator's outlooks, a trade body's, one of the large consultancies' global scenario sets — and the session then tailors the two or three that actually bear on this specific business.

The published sources: Central banks, sector regulators, trade bodies, government forecasting units, and the large consultancies' periodic global outlooks all publish scenario work. Most sectors have at least one credible set already.
Relevance screening: Not every published scenario matters to this business. Screen for genuine exposure — a set built for macro planning may be the wrong grain for a single-market operator.
Tailoring: A published scenario is written for its author's audience, not this business. Rewrite the implications specifically: what does this world mean for this business's customers, costs and competitive position.
Leading indicators: Carried over from the source where the publisher names them, or added where they do not — the observable signal that says which world is arriving.
Option testing: The same test scenario planning applies: which of the business's strategic options thrive, survive or die in each tailored world.

The mistake people makeAdopting a published scenario wholesale without tailoring it to this specific business's exposure, which produces analysis that is grounded but generic — accurate about the sector and useless about this company inside it.

What it’s forGenuine, published scenario work already exists for this sector or geography, and the job is to select and tailor rather than construct from nothing.

What it’s not forNo credible published scenarios exist for this sector, or the uncertainty is genuinely specific to this business rather than sector-wide. Use scenario planning's blank-sheet method instead.

How you run it

Locate the published scenario sets for this sector firstCentral banks, regulators, trade bodies, government units and the major consultancies' global outlooks. Most sectors have at least one credible set already published.
Screen for genuine relevance to this businessNot every set is the right grain. A macro-planning scenario built for policymakers may not translate to a single-market operator's decisions.
Select two or three, not the whole libraryMore than three tailored worlds dilutes the exercise. Choose the ones with the most consequential and most divergent implications for this business.
Tailor each to this business's specific exposureRewrite what the world means for this business's customers, costs and competitive position — not what it means for the sector in general.
Test the strategic options against all of themWhich options thrive, survive or die in each tailored world. Robust options plus one deliberate bet, same as scenario planning.

The prompt

Two ways to run it

Run this tool in your own Claude

The short prompt starts your partner against the library on your disk. The long one carries everything with it and needs nothing installed.

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🔒 Prompt locked

Everything above is free — what this tool is, what it is for, what it is not for, and how to run it as a workshop. Three tool prompts a month are free with an account; beyond three, and for the printable canvas, it is the paid part.

See plans — from £19 a month

Your playbook

It lands in the earliest stage this tool suits. Move it on the Playbook page.

You’ll need

The sector, geography and time horizon the business needs to plan against
Access to a researcher who can locate and read primary published scenario work
The strategic options the tailored scenarios will need to test

You’ll end up with

A shortlist of two or three published scenario sets genuinely relevant to this business
Each tailored to the business's specific exposure, not used generically
The same robustness test scenario planning applies, run against grounded rather than invented worlds

Runs well with

Acquisition screen and synergy thesis Adjacency map Analysis plan Ansoff matrix