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Monitor · Plan, Review

Leading indicator design

Financial results tell you what happened two quarters ago. Leading indicators are the handful of things that move first — and the discipline is keeping the list short enough that someone looks at it.

The printable canvas and the handoff into Claude Code are part of a paid plan. See what a plan includes. It needs the Claude desktop app on this machine, and your team and the prompt library already installed in that project — we cannot see your disk, so open it there.

Stage
04 Plan, 05 Review
Works at
All levels
Maturity
Early startup → Large organisation
Time
90 minutes

What it is

Choosing the small set of measures that move before your financial results do, so you learn whether a strategy is working while you can still act. Lagging measures — revenue, margin, share — tell you what happened two quarters ago. The design work is deciding what leads them, and then refusing to measure anything else.

The assumption
Every indicator should trace back to something the strategy assumes is true. Start from the assumption, ask what you would observe first if it were becoming false, and you have your indicator.
Leading versus lagging
A leading indicator moves before the outcome it predicts. Quote volume, sample requests, time-to-first-order lead; revenue lags. If it only moves after the result, it is a result.
The source
Where the number comes from, and how often you will really see it. An indicator that needs a system you do not have is a wish; a rougher number you will actually get monthly beats it.
The threshold
The level at which the indicator means act, not merely note — agreed in advance. Thresholds set after the fact get rationalised away.
The owner
One named person per indicator, and one forum where they are looked at with the authority to change something.
The mistake people makeCap the list at eight. Beyond that nobody reads them, and an unread dashboard is worse than none because it creates the impression of monitoring.
What it’s forYou want to know the strategy is working before the P&L tells you.
What it’s not forThe strategy has not been decided. Indicators are downstream of intent.

How you run it

  1. Start from the assumptions, not the metricsFor each load-bearing assumption, ask what you would observe first if it were becoming false. That observation is your indicator.
  2. Insist on leading, not laggingRevenue is lagging. Quote volume, sample requests, repeat rate, time-to-first-order are leading.
  3. Check you can actually get the dataAn indicator requiring a system you do not have is a wish. Prefer a rougher number you will really see monthly.
  4. Set the threshold in advanceA number, and what happens when it crosses. Thresholds set after the fact get rationalised away.
  5. Cap the list at eightBeyond eight nobody reads them. If you have twelve, the four you cut were not important.

The prompt

Two ways to run it

Run this tool in your own Claude

The short prompt starts your partner against the library on your disk. The long one carries everything with it and needs nothing installed.

🔒 Prompt locked

Everything above is free — what this tool is, what it is for, what it is not for, and how to run it as a workshop. Three tool prompts a month are free with an account; beyond three, and for the printable canvas, it is the paid part.

See plans — from £19 a month

Your playbook

It lands in the earliest stage this tool suits. Move it on the Playbook page.

You’ll need

  • A decided strategy with named moves
  • Your assumption log, if you have one
  • An honest view of what data you can actually get

You’ll end up with

  • Six to eight indicators with source and cadence
  • A threshold per indicator that triggers action
  • A named owner for each

Runs well with

AI operating model optionsAI risk classification and governanceAlliance and partnership designAssumption mapping