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Monitor · Plan, Review

Assumption log

A dated record of what the strategy takes on faith, with a confidence rating and a review date. Deliberately dull, and the thing that stops a two-year-old guess being treated as fact.

The printable canvas and the handoff into Claude Code are part of a paid plan. See what a plan includes. It needs the Claude desktop app on this machine, and your team and the prompt library already installed in that project — we cannot see your disk, so open it there.

Stage
04 Plan, 05 Review
Works at
All levels
Maturity
Early startup → Large organisation
Time
An hour to set up, ten minutes per review

What it is

A maintained register of what a strategy assumes, with the confidence in each and the date it was assessed. Its purpose is to prevent the quiet promotion of assumptions into facts, which happens to every long-running plan.

The assumption
Stated as a checkable claim rather than a general belief.
Confidence and basis
How well established, and on what — verified, evidenced, inferred once, or assumed. The basis is more informative than the rating.
Date
When it was last assessed. Confidence decays with time and this is the only thing that makes the decay visible.
Falsifying evidence
What would show it to be wrong, written at the time of logging rather than negotiated later.
Owner
Who is responsible for knowing whether it still holds.
Status history
Confirmed, still assumed, or falsified — with dates. The history is where the organisation learns how good its judgement is.
The mistake people makeWithout a review rhythm this becomes a document written once during planning and never opened, which is worse than nothing because it creates a false sense that assumptions are being tracked.
What it’s forThe strategy rests on beliefs that should be checked at intervals rather than assumed forever.
What it’s not forYou have no review rhythm. The log becomes a document nobody opens.

How you run it

  1. Log the assumption as a claimSomething that could be true or false. "The market is competitive" cannot be checked; "our two main rivals will not cut list prices this year" can.
  2. Record confidence and its basisVerified, evidenced, inferred, or assumed. Recording the basis matters more than the label.
  3. Date everythingConfidence decays. An assumption evidenced two years ago is not evidenced now, and dating is what makes that visible.
  4. State what would falsify itWritten at the time it is logged. Deciding afterwards what would have counted as disproof is how assumptions survive contrary evidence.
  5. Review on a rhythmQuarterly is usual. The log's only function is to be reread — one that is written and filed does nothing.

The prompt

Two ways to run it

Run this tool in your own Claude

The short prompt starts your partner against the library on your disk. The long one carries everything with it and needs nothing installed.

🔒 Prompt locked

Everything above is free — what this tool is, what it is for, what it is not for, and how to run it as a workshop. Three tool prompts a month are free with an account; beyond three, and for the printable canvas, it is the paid part.

See plans — from £19 a month

Your playbook

It lands in the earliest stage this tool suits. Move it on the Playbook page.

You’ll need

  • The assumptions behind the strategy, already surfaced
  • A review rhythm that actually happens
  • Somebody who owns keeping it current

You’ll end up with

  • Every material assumption logged with date and confidence
  • What evidence would change each
  • A record of which have since been confirmed or falsified

Runs well with

AI operating model optionsAI risk classification and governanceAlliance and partnership designAssumption mapping